Harvest 2023: First Assessments and Impressions

 The forecasts for the 2023 vintage, disclosed well in advance of the actual start of the harvest, were certainly not among the most exciting ones in recent years. From north to south, the forecasts for Italy painted a scenario in which – in general terms – it would have been very likely, with a quite depressed and sad heart, to bring to the winery a harvest that was decidedly lower than in previous years, at least from a quantitative point of view. In fact, one of the poorest harvests in recent decades was expected for the 2023 harvest, with very few regions recording a positive and growing trend compared to 2022. The grape harvesting operations are now completed, and the must is on its way since some time on the path that will transform it into wine, we can therefore verify the situation of the 2023 harvest, as well as draw the first conclusions regarding those forecasts. From what emerges according to first impressions, it would seem that not everything should be considered negatively, even tough, in general terms, those predictions have been confirmed.

 The forecasts released before the harvest – you will certainly remember that – were largely formulated based on the meteorological trend as well as the occurrence of parasites and diseases which affected the vineyards of Italy. It is a widespread opinion everywhere in the country that the quantity of grapes harvested in the vineyards is decidedly lower than in past years, however – in general terms – it is believed that the quality is instead high enough to promise wines of excellence. In short, not so much, however good. It must be said, in fact, that in addition to the meteorological trend, mainly characterized by a lack of rainfall, there were also the effects of downy mildew, which is notoriously not so kind to the vine. In some regions, the effect of the lack of rain was partly mitigated by the rainfall at the end of August and September, providing the land and the vines with fundamental water support such as to limit the effects of the drought and precisely at the moment during which the grapes proceed towards ripeness.

 Although the effect of the late summer rain was extremely important for the balance of the 2023 vintage, it obviously did nothing for the recovery of the bunches lost due to weather conditions and downy mildew. Italy – of course – was not the only wine-growing country in the world to record a loss in the production of grapes, and therefore of wine. In fact, in the main wine-growing countries of the world, a significant drop in the production of wine has been recorded in vineyards, most of the cases because of unfavorable weather conditions, recognizing as the main cause the climate change which is occurring almost everywhere in the world. For example, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa suffered losses from 10 to 30% compared to 2022. The United States of America is clearly going against the trend, where wine production of 25.2 million hectoliters is expected, corresponding to an increase of 12% compared to the past year.

 Even in Europe, as widely anticipated, the drops amounted to -6% which led to the production of a little over 150 million hectoliters of wine. Among the countries of the old continent, Italy has recorded a rather significant drop such as to cause it to lose its leading role in wine production. After seven years, therefore, Italy is no longer the main wine producer in Europe, leaving the highest rank of the podium to France. In Italy, in fact, the estimated production stands at 43.9 million hectoliters – with a decrease of 12% compared to 2022 – while France stands out with 45 million hectoliters, equal to an increase of 1.5% compared to the past year. Things did not go well even for the third European producer, Spain, which recorded a drop of 14%, while Germany lost 2% compared to 2022, with an estimated production of 8.9 million hectoliters of wine. In all cases, the main cause of these results was the meteorological trend, which was decidedly unfavorable for the cultivation of vines.

 Even in other European countries the situation was not favorable, with Austria recording a loss of 6% compared to 2022, Greece -23%, Croatia -31% and Slovakia -20%. The only country going against the trend is Portugal, which managed to increase production by 9%, corresponding to a little less than 10 million hectolitres. There is one point on which all wine-growing countries seem to agree and which will represent an increasingly important challenge for the future: climate change. Not least, the need to encourage the cultivation of varieties more resistant to the main vine diseases, as well as those more resistant to climatic conditions which seem to change almost everywhere. As an example, it can certainly be cited that – for some years now – the vine is being successfully cultivated in the south of the United Kingdom, so much so that an interesting wine production has started. A condition – this – which until a few decades ago seemed rather unlikely, if not impossible.

 Specifically, as regards the situation in Italy, in addition to the news relating to the 2023 harvest, the ICQRF (the Italian department of the central inspectorate for the safeguarding of quality and repression of fraud in agri-food products) has released the new report “Cantina Italia”, relating to the country's wine stocks. In particular, the quantity of wine still stored in Italian wineries – therefore, not yet sold – which will have to be added to that of the 2023 harvest. According to the ICQRF report, as of 31 October 2023, in Italian wineries there are still 43.2 million hectoliters of wine in stock, equivalent to -5.8% compared to the same period in 2022, however an increase of 2.5% compared to September. In detail, as of 31 October 2023, in the Italian wine factories are stored 43.8 million hectoliters of wine, 13.5 million hectoliters of must and 12.1 million hectoliters of new wine still in fermentation.

 59% of the wine is stored in the wineries of the North, mainly in Veneto, where 24.5% of the national wine is present, especially in the provinces of Treviso (10.4%) and Verona (8.4%). 53.7% is classified as DOP (Denominazione d'Origine Protetta, Denomination of Protected Origin), 24.6% IGP (Indicazione Geografica Protetta, Protected Geographical Indication) and varietal wines represent just 1.6% of the total. As regards DOP wines, 52.2% is represented by red wines, which also constitute 61.7% of IGP wines. Finally, 18.4% is represented by other wines, while varietals make just 1.6% of the total. To these stocks will also be added the musts and wines produced from the 2023 harvest and not yet included in the ICQRF report which, it must be said, is based on the data contained in the electronic wine register and which, according to estimates, contains at least 95% of wine and must stored in Italy. To summarize things up, the data from the “Cantina Italia” report highlight that in the Italian wineries is currently stored a quantity of wine equal to that on average produced in a single harvest.

 It must be said – for clarity – that a large part of this wine is stored in the wineries waiting for the end of its aging period. But it is nevertheless clear that it is also wine from previous harvests and still unsold, which, with the arrival of the new wines from the 2023 harvest, will be rather unlikely to reach the market and therefore generate a profit. I am referring, in particular, to the so-called “ready-to-drink wine”, the one which generally has a commercial life of just under a year and which no one is looking for anymore with the arrival of the new vintage wines. If it is true that Italian wine is experiencing good sales success, especially with exports, it is also true that it is not so easy to sell such a large quantity of wine in the relatively short time of a year. Because it is clear that – in 12 months – we will make exactly the same considerations for the wine of 2023 vintage while thinking about the future of that of 2024. In the end, well aware of being decidedly “unpopular”, the decline in production of the 2023 vintage could also be useful to improve the critical condition of inventories and bring back some balance and awareness.