Wine, Export, Duties and the United States of America

 It was to be expected, unfortunately. Given the extremely bleak and uncertain conditions which have surrounded trade relations with the United States of America for months, it could only lead to a similar outcome. While until a few months ago, it could be considered one of Italy's main trading allies, not only for wine, the new data and export results have pushed the United States of America back several places. The primary causes of this situation – as has been widely known for months – can be traced back to the introduction of tariffs by the US administration, with the resulting drastic decline in orders. This situation was undeniably also determined by the euro - US dollar exchange rate, which clearly contributed to this outcome. In short, for consumers in the United States of America, wine has become decidedly expensive, and not only that. This situation, in any case, forces the various stakeholders involved to adopt appropriate measures, from producers to consumers.

 The analysis recently released by the observatory of Unione Italiana Vini, UIV (Italian Wine Union), covering the two-month period July-August 2025, reveals – precisely – a drastic decline in export value to the United States of America, amounting to -28%, a significant result. Unfortunately, this is despite the measures adopted by Italian producers to limit the trade difficulties resulting from the introduction of tariffs, such as a reduction in list prices of approximately -17%. Orders of Italian wine in the United States of America have fallen sharply, clearly and understandably detrimental to Italian producers. This progressive decline occurred throughout 2025, despite the good results of the first quarter, mainly because of the importers' stockpiling in anticipation of the application of tariffs. Compared to the same period in 2024, a decline of -26% was recorded in July, further worsening in August with a decline of -30%.

 Given these results, the forecasts of the UIV Wine Observatory are decidedly pessimistic. A further significant decline is expected in September. According to Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of the Italian Wine Union, this is nevertheless an expected result, driven precisely by the effect of tariffs and the weakness of the US dollar against the euro. The president also added, «The situation of declining US consumption and, at the same time, an increase in orders for inventory could not be maintained for long, and the data from the summer two-month period confirms this. Wineries are now called upon to look to the medium to long term: on the one hand, it will be important to seize the opportunity to further improve efficiency and management; on the other, to strengthen their presence in foreign markets, starting with the United States of America during the stabilization phase. In this context, institutional intervention in the areas of promotion and internationalization will be crucial. We are therefore closely monitoring the next Italian government's budget, which should allocate additional resources to wine promotion through the ICE, the Italian Trade Agency».

 According to the UIV report, exports to non-EU countries – on a customs basis – showed declines of more than 3% in the first eight months, corresponding to a 4% decrease in volume. Specifically, China recorded a 27% drop, Russia -26%, Japan -5%, Switzerland -3% and the United Kingdom -2.5%. Canada bucked the trend, recording a 10.5% increase. Evaluating exports in the first eight months of 2025, the best result was achieved by sparkling wines, which obtained a 3.7% increase in volume and a 1.3% increase in value, despite an average price decrease of 2.2%. Still and sparkling wines, however, bucked the trend, recording a 5% decrease in volume and a 4.9% decrease in value, with prices remaining relatively stable and with an average increase of 0.1%. This situation, of course, is challenging Italian wine producers – and not just them, of course – especially those primarily focused on exports.

 The current situation of Italian wine sales, including exports, is further detailed in the latest Cantina Italia report of October 31, 2025, released by the Department of the Italian Central Inspectorate for the Protection of Quality and the Suppression of Fraud in Agri-food Products. This document reports the quantities of wines and fermenting musts stored in Italian wineries, as determined by the results of electronic registers. Before considering the data reported, it is worth noting that in the specific period to which the document refers – October 2025 – it is entirely understandable and obvious that the quantities are heavily influenced by the results of the harvest, and therefore by the must currently fermenting. This wine, however, will be released for sale in 2026 and, in any case, represents a significant portion of total inventory. It is not yet wine, but it will be, and as such, it will be an item of sale that is hoped to be successfully commercialized on the domestic and international markets starting next year.

 The report notes that, as of October 31, 2025, Italian wineries currently hold 44.5 million hectoliters of wine, 14.3 million hectoliters of must, and 14.3 million hectoliters of new wine still in fermentation (VNAIF). Compared to the same period in 2024, there has been an increase in stocks of +5.2% for wines, +6.9% for musts, and +6.2% for new wines still in fermentation. This was easily predictable, given the “great success” of the 2025 harvest. Considering the situation as of September 30, 2025, the comparison indicates +23.8% for wines, +67.4% for musts, and +211.3% for new wines still in fermentation. In terms of geographical distribution, the northern regions account for the largest amount of wine – 62.1% – the majority of which is found in Veneto. Furthermore, 55.7% of the wine currently in storage belongs to Protected Designations of Origin (PDO), 25.3% to Protected Geographical Indications (PGI), while just 1.5% is made up of varietal wines and 17.6% is other wines.

 Of all wines classified as “Protected Geographical Indication”, the concentration is significant, as 20 of the 526 denominations account for 58.9% of total stocks. The document, as just mentioned, highlights the significant position of Veneto, which currently accounts for 26.6% of national wine, particularly in the provinces of Treviso (12.8%) and Verona (8.2%). This is followed by Emilia-Romagna (12%), Tuscany (11.5%), Apulia (9.4%), Piedmont (8.8%), Trentino-Alto Adige and Sicily (both 5.6%), Lombardy (5%), Friuli-Venezia Giulia (3.9%), Abruzzo (3.7%), and the remaining 7.9% in other regions. Regarding wine types, the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) classification shows a balance between whites and reds – 48.7% and 48.2%, respectively – while the Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) classification sees red wines prevailing at 55.3%. Regarding musts, 14.3 million hectoliters of Italian musts are held in the southern (45.9%) and northern (38.2%) regions. Three regions account for 66.3% of the musts: Apulia (36.2%), Emilia-Romagna (19.9%), and Piedmont (10.2%). Finally, 14.3 million hectolitres of new wines still in fermentation (VNAIF) are stored in Italian wineries, of which 58.8% are in the North, 18.8% in the South, 12.4% in Central Italy and the remaining 10% in the Islands.