September 2025: Exports Still Going Down

 One might say it was all predicted, and unfortunately, the prediction has been confirmed by the results of the latest surveys released by the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (Italian National Institute of Statistics, ISTAT). I am continuing – ideally – to address the topic of last month's editorial, in which I was talking about the negative forecast expected with the September 2025 results. Wine, as has sadly been known for some time now, is certainly not going through its best moment. Consumption has been declining for some time, also due to the new culture emerging regarding the consumption of alcoholic beverages, without any distinction and which – in my opinion – unfairly treats any beverage equally, regardless of its alcohol content. It is a bit like comparing a squib to an atomic bomb: both explode if triggered, therefore dangerous and devastating to the same degree. The power of generalization, which blindly reaps victims without distinction or exception.

 The downward trend in exports, evidently and primarily determined by current trade relations and conditions between various countries, certainly does not help navigate this unfavorable period. This trend is confirmed by the wine export results recorded at the end of September 2025, which show negative values, even compared to 2024. This comparison, no less, attests to the difficulty wineries face in selling wine beyond national borders, a situation that has been occurring for several years now. Furthermore, it must be considered that, for wineries, wine sales and exports in September take on significant importance and value, as they relate to the market corresponding to the end-of-year holidays. In other words, what is sold in September is uncorked during the Christmas and New Year holidays. These are, as is easily understood, significant periods since, throughout the world, during the end-of-year period, corks pop most frequently and easily.

 The new results and estimates from recent surveys conducted by ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics) reveal – once again, and unfortunately – a challenging time for Italian wine. We are not alone, of course, as other wine-producing countries are also experiencing challenging times, both in terms of the market and management. The new results, updated to September 2025, show a further decline compared to the same period in 2024. In the first nine months of 2025, Italian wine exports worldwide amounted to 5.7 billion euros, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the same period in 2024. Things are no better in France, where exports fell by 5% in September and 3% in October, with an overall decline of 2.5% in 2025. The decline in exports is not solely due to the market conditions that have been prevailing for some time with the United States of America, although these are decidedly significant, especially when compared to previous years.

 These results are further aggravated by the stocks currently held in wineries, which – also by considering the increase resulting from the last harvest – should make everyone think about overproduction compared to the real needs of the new market. It should also be noted that, while exports are experiencing a less than positive period, the same is true for domestic sales, especially in large-scale retail channels. This is another sign of the social and cultural changes taking place in our country, with wine consumption declining, a trend that – however – also affects alcoholic beverages in general. Nothing lasts forever and everything certainly changes, however it is funny to see that a country like Italy – in words strongly and proudly tied to its traditions, especially when it comes to food and drink – is evidently denying wine, that is, the main and most traditional of the drinks that, historically, has always distinguished Italian culture.

 Returning to the Italian wine export data collected in September 2025, it is clear that the negative result is not solely due to sales to the United States of America, although they still represent a significant share. Exports to the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada also recorded a negative result. Regarding the specific situation in the United States of America, it is worth noting that the result achieved in September 2024 was largely determined by fears regarding the introduction of tariffs. This, in fact, favored procurement and the accumulation of significant stocks, thus satisfying the market with more advantageous prices. This explains the negative comparison with September 2025, since – without the need to build up inventories due to the fear of imminent tariffs – this has, so to speak, brought the market conditions back to “normal”. Despite this mitigating factor, exports for the first nine months of 2025 are still negative.

 Looking at the data specifically, in the first nine months of 2025 and compared to the same period in 2024, the United States of America recorded a -2% decline in volume and -4% in value, with a drop of 30 million euros. Germany recorded a -8% decline in volume and -2% in value, while the United Kingdom recorded a -1% decline in volume and -2% in value. Switzerland also showed negative results, recording a -4% decline in both value and volume. Positive signs, however, came from France, recording an +8% in volume and +2% in value. Remaining within Europe, Belgium recorded a +2% in volume with a -2% decline in value, while Sweden recorded a -4% decline in volume and 1% in value. Beyond Europe, Canada recorded a -5% decline in value, while Russia recorded a -32% decline in volume and -23% in value. In the Asian market, China recorded a 20% decline in volume and a 25% decline in value, while Japan recorded a 6% decline in volume and an 8% decline in value. In Latin America, Brazil recorded an 8% decline in volume, with a virtually stable value.

 Further complicating the situation for Italian wine is the stock held in wineries, which, as of November 30, 2025, recorded an 8.6% increase compared to 2024. Specifically, over 53.4 million hectoliters of wine, 9.5 million hectoliters of new wine still fermenting, and 9.7 million hectoliters of must. The geographical distribution of the country remains unchanged, with 60.7% of wines held in the northern regions, particularly Veneto. Of these, 54.6% belong to the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) category, 26.5% to the Protected Geographical Indication (PGI), 17.3% to other wines, and 1.7% to varietal wines. In conclusion, in case further confirmation were needed, the survey of Italian wine consumption and the market reveals a critical situation that, at least for now, shows no signs of improvement. This includes the progressive increase in stocks, which will certainly make the situation even more critical in this new 2026. With a continually declining market and consumption showing no signs of recovery, it seems inevitable to rethink and scale back wine production for the coming years. This is understandably painful, yet essential, especially to avoid far worse consequences. This situation could also prove useful for relaunching wine in a world that is evidently and radically changing its habits and priorities, especially those which see wine as something distinctly different from the past and from everything it signifies and has signified.