Italian Wine: Exports, Inventories, and Harvest

 Wine is a vast, almost endless topic. There are so many things to talk about, and not just sensorial tasting, even though it has become a boring topic in recent years – so say the enlightened new prophets of communication – that keeps wine enthusiasts, old and new, away. There are so many things to talk about, however – alas – the events surrounding wine in recent years almost inevitably lead us to turn our attention to commercial and market developments, to which, given the time of year, we must also look at the forecast and outcome of the 2026 harvest. A vintage that promises to be “indecipherable”, at least according to the statements of producers, agronomists, and enologists. The sweltering heat of recent months has, in fact, significantly accelerated the grape ripening cycle, thus forcing early harvests, even into July, and not just for sparkling wine producers. It must be said that the same situation also occurred in other wine-growing countries in Europe.

 Consumption is declining, export volumes are decreasing, including overall sales, with the only worrying increase being inventories. With the 2026 harvest now ended in many areas, winery inventories are evidently and inevitably destined to rise. This involves, at least initially, grape must, which will increase the so-called share of “new wine still fermenting” (“Vino Nuovo Ancora in Fermentazione”, VNAIF) however, in a few months, it will become fully-fledged wine, with the renewed hope of being sold. Just like the current inventories from previous vintages. The 2026 vintage, as mentioned, has already been defined as “indecipherable”, and no one feels it is worth risking making a prediction. This condition has been met almost unanimously in Europe's top three wine-producing countries – Italy, France, and Spain – with producers, agronomists, and enologists remaining tight-lipped about the outcome of the 2026 harvest. These positions are clearly understandable, given the exceptional heat wave that, compared to previous years, has led to the grapes ripening extremely early, a condition that has, so to speak, been never seen before and is therefore difficult to interpret and predict.

 Forecasts, or rather, no forecasts aside, according to the “Cantina Italia” report, updated to July 31, 2026, wine stocks in Italian wineries amount to 42.6 million hectoliters, an increase of 6.9% compared to the same period in 2025. Furthermore, 3.1 million hectoliters of must and 42,027 hectoliters of new wine still in fermentation (Vnaif) are in stock. Compared to the same reference period in 2025, musts have increased (+31.5%) while new wine still in fermentation has decreased by -28.5%. Compared to the previous survey – June 30, 2026 – there have been declines of -8.6% for wines, -17.4% for musts, and -24.4% for “Vnaif”. As in the previous reports, the majority of stocks are held in Veneto wineries, accounting for 55.9%. Regarding the share of wine categories, 55.4% are DOP (predominantly red, accounting for 53.8%), 25.8% are IGP, varietal wines account for 1.7%, and other wines account for 17.1%.

 As has been recorded for several years now, Prosecco DOC holds the record among the denominations, with a whopping 3.2 million hectoliters, equal to 9.4% of the entire country. Apulia and Tuscany IGP follow with 1.5 million hectoliters, equal to 4.4%, then Chianti DOCG with 1.2 million, equivalent to 3.6%. Furthermore, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo DOC with 1.13 million hectoliters – 3.3% – followed by Terre Siciliane IGP with 1.1 million, 3.2%, Sicilia DOC with 1.11 million, 3.2%, Salento IGP with 1 million, 3.1%, and finally Delle Venezie DOC with 963,000 hectoliters, 2.9%. These values, as already mentioned, are destined to rise with the 2026 harvest, which, although initially limited to the share of musts and new wines still in fermentation, will inevitably see the already high share of wines rise in the coming months. New inventories will inevitably – and I would add, truly hope so – need to be successfully reduced through the natural process of production, that is, sales. An undertaking that, at least for now, seems decidedly complex and fraught with uncertainty.

 Starting with exports – a key component of the Italian and European wine market – which saw another decline in the first four months of 2026. According to results released by the Italian Wine Union (Unione Italiana Vini) – based on ISTAT data, the National Institute of Statistics – Italian wine exports fell 6.8% in value, equal to 2.34 billion euros. Volumes, of course, also declined 3.7%, to 641 million liters. This decline was seen both in the non-European market, down 8.7%, and in the European market, down 3.9%. In this context, for the first time in 10 months, the United States of America – following the well-known trade disputes – showed a tentative sign of recovery, with a 1.6% increase in April alone, but a 15.4% decline in the four-month period. Germany and the United Kingdom – primary importers of Italian wine – also recorded declines of 6.8% and 6.1%, respectively. Furthermore, Canada remained stable, while Switzerland closed the first four months with a 12.7% decline.

 Things seem to be going better in some emerging markets, such as Brazil, where growth was +17.8% (corresponding to +36.4% for the entire Mercosur area), China, with +9.7%, and Russia, +28%. The Italian Wine Union also released updated data for May and, unfortunately, the final figures for the first five months of the year for so-called third-party countries show a decline of -7.5% in value and -3.9% in volume. In May alone, the United States of America recorded a 15% decline in value, with a corresponding 10% loss in the average price for 2026. In this regard, the president of the Italian Wine Union, Lamberto Frescobaldi, observes that «the increased presence in emerging and outlet markets, in addition to the reduction in production, are the two contextual directions that Italian wine must pursue. The current situation requires us to recognize that we are going through a phase in which it is not only necessary to further promote our wine, but also to recognize that large quantities released on the market do not help to enhance its value. We must aim for a balance between supply and demand that allows us to sustain the value of Italian wine, protecting business income and the competitiveness of the sector».

 The market situation, of course, is not unique to Italy: France and Spain are also not providing encouraging data. One might say “misery loves company”, but in reality, it is simply “misery”. To this, as already mentioned, is added the uncertainty surrounding the 2026 harvest, for which none of the trade associations have commented on the forecast. The uncertainty surrounding the season, which is decidedly critical in all three countries, understandably requires caution, postponing any estimates until the end of the harvest, when the grapes are harvested and the winemaking process has begun, thus allowing for a definitive final outcome. The few who have made any predictions, note the good quality of the grapes and, given the scorching summer weather conditions, the obvious and nonexistent risk of downy mildew. Another sign detected in Europe's major wine-producing countries – reiterated and confirmed – is the widespread decline in domestic consumption, with decidedly “not optimistic” forecasts. In my usual, incurable optimism, I still want to imagine that – sooner or later – wine will overcome this evident challenging moment. Perhaps by toasting renewed success with the 2026 vintage wines, which, in a few months, we will begin pouring into our glasses. Despite the lack of estimates and forecasts, they will certainly be capable of thrilling us. As always.