2026 Harvest: New Assessments

 I return to the subject of the 2026 harvest, partly because this year was, to an unusual degree, far from simple from an agronomic and viticultural standpoint, and partly because the final figures are now clear, providing a comprehensive and definitive picture. Furthermore, the data offer interesting points for reflection, not only regarding 2026 but also for future vintages. The first observation concerns the perennial competition – a contest that has become increasingly unexciting, if it ever was compelling to begin with and certainly not for me – over which wine-producing nations claim the top spot in terms of total volume. Despite a challenging year marked by extreme weather conditions – including soaring temperatures and critically low water availability in the vineyards – Italy has once again secured the highest step on the podium for 2026. While this outcome might spark joy and jubilation for some, for others – maybe – it may not necessarily be such good news.

 Recent estimates indicate that Italy has produced 41.1 million hectoliters of wine, a decline of 7.4% compared to 2025, something which was widely anticipated. We are a long way from the days when the production of Italy was significantly higher, yet the country remains a key player in the ongoing rivalry with France and Spain, its two main competitors for the prestigious title of top wine producer. It is worth noting that while France and Spain have, for some years now, significantly curtailed their production, Italy continues to outperform both, maintaining a substantial lead. For comparison, wine production estimates for 2026 stand at 33.9- -34.9 million hectoliters for France and 34- -37.6 million for Spain. While exceptional weather conditions have clearly contributed to this decline in all three nations, the trend has been consistent over the last three years. For instance, France produced 46 million hectoliters in 2022 and 48 million in 2023, compared to just 36.1 million in 2024.

 It is worth recalling that, in recent years, France has seen a series of events and measures specifically aimed at reducing annual wine production. These painful steps – indeed, extremely painful – have included the uprooting of vineyards, in some cases quite drastically. This French strategy seeks to align wine production with current trends and, above all, with recent sales figures, particularly for red wines, which have been hit hardest by the decline in demand, including within the domestic market. Furthermore, this move is explicitly attributed to ongoing climate and market shifts, for which France sees no improvement in the near future. The primary victims have been vineyards destined to mass-market wines, a segment that nonetheless represents a vital component of the annual balance sheet. However, this is a “calculated” sacrifice, intended in part to enhance the quality of the remaining vineyards and thereby foster growth in niche markets. As a result of this strategy, Spain overtook France in 2026, becoming the second-largest European producer in terms of volume.

 What about Italy? While other wine-producing countries around the world are grappling with new climatic and global market challenges – in some cases significantly reducing their production – Italy has proven to be the country most reluctant to these shifts over the last 20 years. This is a decidedly critical situation, especially when it is considered – nevertheless – the current and substantial volume of wine sitting in Italian wineries, now compounded by the 2026 harvest. The latest “Cantina Italia” report, released on September 30th, indicates a 14% increase compared to the previous survey, with PDO (Protected Designation of Origin) wines accounting for the bulk of this figure. Naturally, this rise is partly due to the 2026 harvest, which took place unusually early and has inevitably had a significant impact on the data. In any case, the report notes that as of September 30, 2026, there were 41.2 million hectoliters of wine in storage in Italian wineries, an increase of 14.2% compared to the figures recorded during the same period in 2025.

 As is to be expected during the grape harvest season, the volumes for musts have risen-up 50.5% equal to 12.8 million hectoliters, along with those for new wines still undergoing fermentation, which have increased by 92.8%, equal to 8.8 million hectoliters. A heartening figure – though perhaps not one viewed as such by everyone – is the projected decrease in wine volume for 2026, which, as previously mentioned, shows a 7.4% decline compared to 2025. Regarding wine stocks, PDO (Protected Designation of Origin) wines account for the largest share, 56.8%, or 23.3 million hectoliters, representing a 12.8% increase over 2025. This growth amounts to 2.5 million hectoliters, consisting of 10.4 million hectoliters of white wine (+23.7%), 12.1 million of red (+5.4%), and 0.7 million of rosé (+3%). The share of IGP (Protected Geographical Indication) wines is more modest, showing a 15.6% increase to 10.3 million hectoliters, comprising 5.8 million hectoliters of red and 4 million of white. Another significant increase is seen in table wines, which have risen by 16.6% equal to 6.6 million hectoliters.

 If there is one thing that is declining, aside from the harvest projections for 2026, it is the average price of Italian wines, partly as a result of inflation. This is unwelcome news, especially for producers, who now face this challenge on top of existing difficulties in the export market. This assessment comes from the Unione Italiana Vini (UIV, Italian Wine Union), which notes a widespread drop in the retail value of wine and warns of a potential systemic crisis. Provisional inflation data released by ISTAT (the National Institute of Statistics) show a 0.7% increase in consumer prices compared to the previous month, and a 4.2% rise relative to September 2025. This is largely driven by higher energy and raw material costs within the food sector. Such increases, however, are not being seen in the wine category, which has been experiencing a steady decline in value for months. Preliminary estimates indicate a 0.3% drop compared to August 2026, and a 2.3% decrease relative to September 2025.

 A significant factor is clearly the widespread decline in consumption, a trend that has remained in negative territory for several years, driven by more than just market-related reasons. Grape prices also appear to be falling: initial estimates suggest a further decrease compared to the 2025 average. While awaiting confirmation, this represents yet another critical challenge for the wine supply chain, particularly for winegrowers who sell the grapes from their own vineyards. Lower revenues, combined with cultivation costs that weigh heavily on margins, inevitably result in reduced profits. In short, viticulture is becoming increasingly less profitable for those who grow the grapes. It is truly difficult to make predictions about the future of wine. Given the broad decline in consumption, a market that has yet to show any truly encouraging signs, and existing winery stocks that only complicate matters further, everything points to 2027 being much like 2026. Of course, it is true that sometimes it takes very little to turn a difficult situation around: never say never. Nevertheless, the horizon currently remains rather bleak; while we wait for it to clear, we look forward with confidence to the emotions that the 2026 harvest will bring. And all this, despite the many detractors of wine who, it seems, are quite a lot in these days. Raise your glasses!